See bankruptcy risk before it becomes a case.
RiskGuard AI is a machine learning platform that gives investors and legal advisors early warning of corporate bankruptcy risk — turning a company's financial data into a clear, explainable risk signal.
Company A — FY review
By the time a company files for bankruptcy, the warning signs are often already in its accounts.
Losses arrive late
Investors, creditors and employees often learn of distress only when it is too late to limit the damage.
Traditional models fall short
Classic statistical tools such as logistic regression and decision trees miss complex patterns in financial data.
Legal decisions need evidence
Lawyers, regulators and policymakers need risk signals they can understand, explain and act on.
From financial statements to early warning.
- I
Collect financials
The company's financial data is brought into the platform.
- II
Compute indicators
Key financial ratios — such as debt-to-equity and return on assets — are calculated.
- III
Ensemble prediction
Ensemble machine learning models, led by XGBoost, estimate the risk of bankruptcy.
- IV
Explain & act
A risk signal with its main drivers supports timely legal and investment decisions.
Ensemble learning outperforms traditional methods.
The XGBoost ensemble model delivered the strongest bankruptcy predictions across every measure.
Share of companies whose risk status was predicted correctly.
When the model flags a company as at risk, how often it is right.
How many truly at-risk companies the model successfully catches.
Overall ability to separate at-risk from healthy companies.
Compared against traditional statistical methods. Ensemble models, particularly XGBoost, predicted bankruptcy risk better than the classic approaches.
Source: Al Jameel et al., IEEE ICBATS 2025. doi:10.1109/ICBATS66542.2025.11258208
Two ratios carry almost half the signal.
Feature importance analysis shows which financial indicators drive the model's predictions — making every warning explainable to clients, courts and regulators.
For those who need to act early.
Protect capital
Spot companies in financial distress before committing or increasing investment.
Advise with evidence
Support due diligence, restructuring advice and insolvency planning with data.
Strengthen oversight
Identify risk earlier to improve regulatory compliance and reduce wider losses.
Interpretable by design.
- Every risk signal shows the financial indicators behind it.
- Explainability is treated as essential for legal decision-making.
- The platform supports professional judgement — it does not replace it.
Honest about limits, clear on direction.
- Current results are bounded by the available dataset and model complexity.
- Next: deeper explainability methods for every prediction.
- Next: integrating AI into legal processes and workflows.
Where corporate law meets financial science.
RiskGuard AI was founded in 2025 by a research team that brings legal expertise in corporate and insolvency law together with financial analysis and machine learning.
Faculty of Law
Defines how risk signals are used in corporate law, due diligence and insolvency — and what explainability the law requires.
Administrative & Financial Sciences
Selects the financial indicators, builds the prediction models and analyses what drives corporate distress.
Frequently asked questions
What does RiskGuard AI do?
It analyses a company's financial indicators with ensemble machine learning to give early warning of bankruptcy risk, supporting investors and legal advisors.
How accurate is it?
The XGBoost ensemble model achieved 88.7% accuracy, 86.5% precision, 84.5% recall and an AUC-ROC of 0.90, outperforming logistic regression and decision trees.
Which indicators matter most?
Feature importance analysis found the debt-to-equity ratio (25%) and return on assets (20%) to be the most important financial indicators.
Why does interpretability matter?
Legal and regulatory decisions must be justified. Showing which indicators drive each prediction lets professionals understand and explain the risk signal.
Does it replace legal or financial advice?
No. RiskGuard AI is a decision-support tool that helps professionals intervene earlier; final judgements remain with qualified advisors.
Backed by peer-reviewed research.
Read the IEEE study behind RiskGuard AI's bankruptcy early-warning models.
Al Jameel, M., Ali, M. S. M., Majeed, M. L., Al-Attar, B., Mohammed, A. F., Mohammed, M. A., et al. (2025). Early detection of bankruptcy risk in corporate law using ensemble machine learning techniques. In 2025 3rd International Conference on Business Analytics for Technology and Security (ICBATS) (pp. 1–8). IEEE.
https://doi.org/10.1109/ICBATS66542.2025.11258208